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An impending political storm over conscripting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the Israeli army is posing a risk to the governing coalition and splitting the state.

Public opinion on the issue has shifted dramatically in Israel after two years of hostilities, and this is now arguably the most explosive political risk facing Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Constitutional Struggle

Legislators are currently considering a draft bill to terminate the deferment given to ultra-Orthodox men engaged in yeshiva learning, created when the modern Israel was established in 1948.

The deferment was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in the early 2000s. Stopgap solutions to continue it were officially terminated by the judiciary last year, compelling the cabinet to begin drafting the community.

Approximately 24,000 call-up papers were issued last year, but merely about 1,200 Haredi conscripts enlisted, according to defense officials given to lawmakers.

Friction Boil Over Onto the Streets

Tensions are erupting onto the streets, with elected officials now deliberating a new legislative proposal to force ultra-Orthodox men into national service in the same way as other Jewish citizens.

A pair of ultra-Orthodox lawmakers were harassed this month by hardline activists, who are furious with parliament's discussion of the proposed law.

Recently, a specialized force had to extract Military Police officers who were targeted by a sizeable mob of community members as they sought to apprehend a suspected draft-evader.

These enforcement actions have sparked the creation of a new messaging system called "Dark Alert" to rapidly disseminate information through Haredi neighborhoods and mobilize demonstrators to prevent arrests from taking place.

"We're a Jewish country," stated Shmuel Orbach. "It's impossible to battle religious practice in a Jewish state. It doesn't work."

A World Set Aside

But the changes blowing through Israel have not yet breached the confines of the religious seminary in an ultra-Orthodox city, an religious community on the fringes of Tel Aviv.

Inside the classroom, scholars learn in partnerships to discuss Judaism's religious laws, their vividly colored writing books standing out against the seats of white shirts and head coverings.

"Arrive late at night, and you will see a significant portion are pursuing religious study," the dean of the yeshiva, the spiritual guide, said. "Through religious study, we shield the troops in the field. This constitutes our service."

Ultra-Orthodox believe that continuous prayer and religious study defend Israel's armed forces, and are as crucial to its defense as its tanks and air force. That belief was endorsed by previous governments in the earlier decades, he said, but he acknowledged that public attitudes are shifting.

Growing Popular Demand

The Haredi community has more than doubled its percentage of the nation's citizens over the since the state's founding, and now constitutes 14%. A policy that originated as an deferment for several hundred yeshiva attendees evolved into, by the beginning of the 2023 war, a group of approximately 60,000 men not subject to the conscription.

Polling data show approval of ending the exemption is increasing. A survey in July found that 85% of non-Haredi Jews - encompassing a large segment in his own coalition allies - backed penalties for those who ignored a call-up notice, with a clear majority in favor of cutting state subsidies, the right to travel, or the franchise.

"It seems to me there are individuals who are part of this country without serving," one military member in Tel Aviv said.

"In my view, however religious you are, [it] should be an justification not to fulfill your duty to your state," stated Gabby. "If you're born here, I find it rather absurd that you want to avoid service just to learn in a yeshiva all day."

Views from Within Bnei Brak

Support for broadening conscription is also expressed by religious Jews not part of the Haredi community, like one local resident, who resides close to the yeshiva and points to non-Haredi religious Jews who do serve in the military while also engaging in religious study.

"I'm very angry that the Haredim don't serve in the army," she said. "It is unjust. I am also committed to the Torah, but there's a saying in Hebrew - 'Safra and Saifa' – it means the Torah and the guns together. That is the path, until the days of peace."

The resident maintains a modest remembrance site in Bnei Brak to soldiers from the area, both from all backgrounds, who were killed in battle. Long columns of images {