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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Hungary's prime minister stood out as the exclusive European Union leader to back Donald Trump. This backing was expected, given Mr Orbán's adoption of contentious theories such as the "great replacement" theory and his restrictions against journalistic liberties. Observers observe that Hungary's premier essentially laid the groundwork for the Make America Great Again campaign, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon hailing Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Campaign Assistance Ahead of Hungary's Polls

In recent days, ahead of key votes in Hungary only approaching in six months, Donald Trump reciprocated with support. As Mr Orbán pursues a fifth consecutive term leading a nation he describes as an non-liberal system, his Fidesz party lags in the polls. An official trip to Washington yielded more than a few signed Maga baseball caps; it secured considerably more valuable pre-election gifts.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Despite before admonishing EU countries on the necessity to stop all resource supplies from Russia, and warning of sanctions against states continuing to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump agreed to provide a particular exclusion for the Hungarian government – the largest EU consumer of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the Trump administration also pledged to extend a “financial shield” to Hungary's capital should it encounters any later issues, given that Brussels continues to withhold billions in EU funding to Hungary because of rule-of-law breaches.

The particulars of this arrangement remain vague. But Donald Trump has shown his willingness to help out like-minded partners when the United States provided a a $20 billion loan to Argentina’s far-right president, the South American leader. Even though Orbán failed to obtain a Trump trip to Budapest to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting still turned out to be a productive session.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, Mr Trump’s intervention likely highlighted the international consequences of the forthcoming polls, prior to which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, has a clear edge in surveys. European leaders have learned not to anticipate principled consistency from the US government, and accept the American leader's efforts to belittle the European Union. But the waiver for Hungary – which came at the price of an deal to acquire American natural gas and nuclear power – openly contradicts EU aspirations to end Russian oil and gas by the year 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the two biggest EU importers of Russian crude, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have provided substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has often employed the blocking vote to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for aiding the Ukrainian government, and bolstering its position in any later diplomatic discussions, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the negotiating table continues to be a major hurdle.

Opposition Stance

Péter Magyar has avoided promising a major policy shift on the Ukraine conflict, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while emphasizing the need for Hungary to finally behave as a positive member state. Following persistent provocations, the European Union can only wait and hope. Orbán's disregard to fundamental European principles, like the protection of minority groups and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a source of shame for the European Union. His ongoing blocking tactics toward Ukrainian matters risks undermining its future security.